Simple Answers to Stupid Questions
The McCain campaign is unusually upbeat. Does it have reason to be?
Archive for posts ‘polls’
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Poll Porn
I know I shouldn’t be counting our chickens before they hatch, but Pollster’s electoral map currently has 268 electoral votes in the Strong Democrat category.
By the way, did you notice that Georgia, Montana, and North Dakota are all toss-ups now. Just saying.
Update: Wonkette:
Up top, that’s your Pollster.com map (definitely look at the FiveThirtyEight map, where the reds and blues are a bit sharper defined), which today has taken the insane step of labeling Georgia, motherfucking GEORGIA, as a toss-up state — even after Obama moved most of his personnel out of there a couple of months ago. Eh, we doubt this, because it is GEORGIA. Besides, it doesn’t really matter: if Obama wins Georgia, that means he’s already won North Carolina, which means he’s already won Virginia, which he doesn’t even need to win the election.
And just assume McCain will win Montana and the Dakotas too because, again, WTF?/who cares.
So all McCain needs to win among the competitive races is Georgia, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, and either Pennsylvania or Virginia+Colorado or Virginia+New Mexico+New Hampshire GAHHH SO MUCH IS NECESSARY, BRAIN EXPLOSION!!!!E;FMLKWEKFMWE$$$$Wqdscnm.
After assessing all of this, John McCain decided to campaign in Iowa today.
Changing the Map
Today’s polls show a lot of good news for Obama, but of particular importance is that Virginia might be just a stepping stone to a really big prize:
Barack Obama 47
John McCain 45
Bob Barr 3With concern about the economy continuing to mount, Barack Obama has taken the lead for the first time in a PPP poll of North Carolina.
Over the last year there’s been a strong relationship between the number of North Carolinians listing the economy as their biggest concern, and Obama’s standing in the polls. In January when just 39% of voters said it was their biggest issue John McCain led by 14 points. In August with it up to 48% Obama trailed by just three. Last week with 58% listing it number one the race was tied, and now with the number up to a record 64% Obama has taken a small lead. He is up 55-38 among respondents citing the economy as their main concern.
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Independents are moving toward Obama in droves. Where last week he had a 42-39 advantage with them, now he is up 48-37. He also now receives 36% of the white vote, up from 33%. He will likely need 35-38% in that demographic to win the state, depending on how high turnout from black voters is.Full results here. (PDF)
Thanks to Barack’s strong stance on the economy and a really energizing Senate race, we could be looking at a really different electoral college map on November 4th.
Polls Give Obama Debate Victory
The numbers are in from Friday’s debate, and it looks like good news for Team Obama:
By 46%-34%, those who watched said Obama did a better job than McCain. Obama led McCain, 52%-35%, when they were asked which candidate offered the best proposals for change to solve the country’s problems.
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The debate had a positive impact for Obama on handling the economy; 34% said they had more confidence in him to fix economic problems after seeing the debate, while 26% said they had less. For McCain, 37% reported having less confidence and 23% said they had more.
CNN:
Fifty-one percent of those polled thought Obama did the better job in Friday night’s debate, while 38 percent said John McCain did better.
Men were nearly evenly split between the two candidates, with 46 percent giving the win to McCain and 43 percent to Obama. But women voters tended to give Obama higher marks, with 59 percent calling him the night’s winner, while just 31 percent said McCain won.
“It can be reasonably concluded, especially after accounting for the slight Democratic bias in the survey, that we witnessed a tie in Mississippi tonight,” CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib said. “But given the direction of the campaign over the last couple of weeks, a tie translates to a win for Obama.”
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National security has been an issue where McCain has held an advantage, but his edge over Obama — 49 percent to 45 percent — on the question of which candidate would best handle terrorism is within the poll’s 4.5 percent margin of error.The economy, which has been Obama’s terrain this cycle, dominated the first half of the debate. Debate watchers gave him a 21 percentage point edge — 58 to 37 percent — on the question of which candidate would do a better job handling the economy.
By a similar margin, those polled said Obama would be better able to deal with the current financial crisis facing the nation.
CBS:
Thirty-nine percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-four percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-seven percent saw it as a draw.
Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight. Thirty-two percent said their opinion of McCain got better.
Sixty-six percent of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy. Forty-two percent think McCain would.
Forty-eight percent of these voters think Obama would make the right decisions about Iraq. Fifty-six percent think McCain would.
MediaCurves: Independents preferred Obama’s responses to every question asked during the debate. 61% of Independents polled through Obama won the debate, compared to 38% for McCain.
Also, for those of you who were a little disappointed with the number of times Obama said “John is right,” Virginia Del. Kris Amundson (D-44) has some food for thought:
Fess up. On Friday night, you wanted Our Guy to strike back. You wondered why he didn’t say, “As a matter of fact, John, I dounderstand.” You wanted him to smack somebody upside the head.
Or maybe that was just me.
But as the polls have come in and I’ve had a chance to look at the internals, I was the one who was smacked upside the head with this realization: These folks know what they’re doing.
For a lot of us (on both sides) the election is already over. The Twelve Apostles could come canvassing at my door for John McCain and I wouldn’t change my vote. So in that debate, Barack Obama didn’t have to talk to me.
He did need to talk to the undecided voters. Who loved the fact that he wasn’t mean. Who loved it when he said he agreed with his opponent. Who want a President, in other words, who acts Presidential.
Bass-Ackwards
Following a SUSA poll showing that the vast majority of Americans don’t want to postpone one debate, the McCain campaign has now proposed postponing two debates.
Huh?
Palin: Americans Looking to McCain for Economic Leadership, Americans: No We Aren’t
Sarah Palin couldn’t be any further from reality:
PALIN: The interesting thing in the last couple of days that I have seen is that Americans are waiting to see what John McCain will do on this proposal. They’re not waiting to see what Barack Obama is going to do. Is he going to do this and see what way the political wind’s blowing. They’re waiting to see if John McCain will be able to see these amendments implemented in Paulson’s proposal.
That’s from an advance quote from Katie Couric’s interview with Palin, which is set to air tonight. See, the only problem is that CNN, ABC/Washington Post, FOX News, NBC/Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg/LA Times, and CBS/New York Times polls all show that more Americans trust Barack Obama to handle the economy than John McCain.
Then again, Palin can see Russia from her house. So what do the rest of us know?
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